How Nick Mullens’ start impacts Vikings’ play off chances The Vikings are making a QB change… will this improve their chances of reaching the postseason?
Matthew Coller by Purple Insider Dec 14, 2023 9:11am ESTEAGAN — In 1988, the Cleveland Browns had so many injuries that they turned to longtime Miami Dolphins backup Don Strock with the season on the line.
In the final game of the year, Strock led the Browns to come back from a 23–7 deficit against the Houston Oilers in a snow storm to advance to the play offs.
Strock became a Cleveland legend as he was their fourth quarter back that year. Bernie Kosar, Mike Pagel and Gary Danielson were all injured.
“Despite everything, this Browns team has demonstrated the courage and character to over come adversity,” said voice actor Jeff Kaye in the 1988 Browns high light film produced by NFL Films. “1988 was a season of high expectations, over shadowed by some of the strangest events in Browns history.”
The Minnesota Vikings’ current situation isn’t as crazy as the ’88 Browns. After all, nothing stopped Pagel from getting injured during a blocked kick tackle.
The Vikings only reached three QBs due to injury. Thanks to their performance, they are now on their fourth quarter back. After two strong games against the Falcons and Saints, Josh Dobbs completed less than 60% of his passes with two touch downs, five interceptions, nine sacks and just 53 rushing yards. When the Vikings were shut out by the Raiders in the fourth quarter, coach Kevin O’Connell pulled the plug and brought Nick Mullens back into the game.
In two drives, Mullens led the Vikings across the finish line with a game-winning drive to defeat the Raiders 3-0. On Tuesday, O’Connell announced that Mullens will start as the Vikings take on the Cincinnati Bengals. “There’s a reason why we got Nick when we did, to really solidify that position,” O’Connell said, referring to the Vikings’ trade for Mullens in training camp in 2022.
quarter back you think can win some football game with one click, you are looking for certain qualities, Nick has them all, I love everything about his preparation.
It allows us to prepare with a plan and does not need many repetitions to then execute it. “Executing the entire offense seems to be the key.
While O’Connell spoke at length last week about trying to adapt the scheme to Dobbs’ strengths, but that proved in effective, so now they’re going back to a quarter back more similar to Cousins in terms of style of play and offensive experience as designed.
level [against the Raiders], and the chemistry, the show management, the feeling of how our offense felt with him in there and some of those big throws on third down that brought him back down to earth and our guys gave us the opportunity to make plays,” O’Connell said. Life is funny sometimes. Mullens would have been the starter had he not suffered a back injury earlier this year. Instead, he was in IR, forcing rookie Jaren Hall to start and when he went down, Dobbs took over and had a magical win against the Falcons that made him a brief national phenom, but he’s back down to earth and now the rightful backup has been reinstated, just in time to play a promising Cincinnati Bengals team and have a chance to follow in the foot steps of the 1988 Browns and make the play offs.
As of Sunday, the Vikings have about a 60% chance of making the play offs , depending on which analytics site you visit. After wins and losses against the Rams and Packers, they had a 21% chance of making the play offs, according to Sumer Sports.
What do they need to do in the last four games to participate? The New York Times playoff odds machine puts it very simply: If the Vikings can win two of their next four games, they are safe in the postseason.
If they go 1-3 their chances decrease unless their only win is against the Packers, then they are still above 50%.
There’s a saying about backup QBs: They’re doing their job well if they can win 50% of their games. . Well, if Mullens can go 2-4, mission accomplished and the Vikings will not only make the play offs, but become one of the few teams to over come an 0-3 start and play meaningful football during the season in January. He can do it? Scroll down to “Next.”
More information During his career, Mullens played seventeen games and his team won five of them.
That’s not an unusual stat for a backup quarter back. Even with some impressive performances this year from QB2/3/4, there are a total of 31-48 backups this season.
But the circumstances are different among competitors. Playing for the Vikings, who have become an elite defense and have Justin Jefferson back (assuming he returns after leaving last week’s game) is different than trying to guide a struggling club to the finish line.
Overall, the Vikings are fifth in points allowed and still 13th in offensive points added despite their struggles over the past three weeks. Health and opponents will be important.
Alexander Mattison and Brian O’Neill didn’t practice Tuesday and Dalton Risner, Ed Ingram and Jefferson were limited. Mattison was just starting to find his rhythm, averaging 5.2 yards per carry over the past three weeks, and O’Neill is irreplaceable when it comes to keeping up with top passers.On the opponents’ side, the Vikings defense will face a bigger challenge.
than the Broncos, Bears or Raiders in all four games. The Bengals, Lions and Packers all rank in the top half of the league offensively, and Cincinnati is coming off a 34-point performance behind former Viking Jake Browning.
Mullens probably won’t get another W with three points. He will have a chance to win against this defense.
The Bengals are 29th in expected points added, the Packers are 17th and the Lions are 20th.
Looking at Mullens’ advanced numbers, you can see a clear trend in his game: When he has clean pockets, he’s ready to go.
If he is under pressure, problems will arise. Yes, that’s the case for most QBs, but with Mullens the gap is extreme. According to PFF, he had the ninth-lowest QB rating (out of 39 QBs) while under pressure in 2018.
In 2020 it was the fifth worst. With time on his hands, however, Mullens finished 11th and 17th in QB rankings in his two seasons as a semi-regular starter.
He was a turnover-worthy gaming machine with high blood pressure. With the 49ers in 2020, Mullens had the third-worst TWP percentage under pressure, behind only Drew Lock and Mitch Trubisky. The Vikings’ pass blocking has hit some snags in recent weeks.
Dobbs is the sixth QB under pressure in the league since he joined the Vikings. Presumably one of the reasons Mullens plays with the Bengals, Lions and Packers is because Dobbs creates pressure because he can’t get rid of the ball in time, as they all have pass rushers who can cause problems.
According to PFF, Mullens finished 10th in 2020 because he didn’t apply any pressure.
As the Vikings defense progresses, they will need Mullens to not cause the problems he does.
O’Connell was quick to point out that one of the main reasons for the ugly victory was the lack of turnovers. In Mullens’ 17 games, he threw 23 interceptions and fumbled eight times.
With so many missteps, it’s not enough. Also, there are restrictions for pushing the ball down based on its previous numbers.
When Mullens threw between 10 and 19 yards through the air in 2020, he made a turnover-worthy play every 7.6 drop backs and posted just a PFF grade of 52.1.
This would explain why 62% of his throws were less than 10 yards. However, Mullens had his moments.
He has thrown for over 300 yards in two games and has a QB rating over 100.
He has three 3-TD games and six starts in which he has thrown over 80 (of 100), according to PFF. That’s why the Vikings plan to take Mullen’s right side in the final game of the season.
Or at least, after Dobbs’ last three starts, they have no choice but to take advantage of this momentum and hope it works out like Don Strock did in Cleveland.
