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2. The Steelers started the wrong quarterback all season
The Steelers have life again in the AFC playoffs, albeit barely after blowing out the Bengals on Saturday, 34-11. They turned to Mason Rudolph at quarterback, and he led the Steelers to their best passing output of the season, completing 17 of 27 passes for 290 yards and two touchdowns. George Pickens caught both of those TDs and had 195 yards on four catches, including an 86-yard score on Pittsburgh’s second offensive snap.
So it’s only natural that people would think that Rudolph should have been the starter all along.
But it’s not so easy.
Cincinnati’s pass defense has been poor this season, ranking 28th in the NFL as of Monday (256.1 yards per game) and last in net yards allowed per pass attempt (7.1). Kenny Pickett threw for 278 yards when the two teams met in Cincinnati in Week 12. The Steelers won that game, 16-10.
The Bengals clearly miss Jessie Bates III and Vonn Bell.
For as good as Rudolph was on Saturday, he hadn’t started a game in two years for a reason. He has 18 TDs and 11 interceptions in 19 games, although he only started in 11 of those.
I still feel like Pickett is the guy and he should do better with a better offensive coordinator. The way he values the football is so important for how the Steelers win, and there’s something to be said for that.
3. The Lions are further proof why the Rams should be the model for rebuilding teams
Not only are the Browns having a dream season being 10-5 despite all of their injuries, but the Lions are also enjoying a magical 2023. They won their first division title in 30 years, locking up the NFC North with a 30-24 win vs. the Vikings.
But the Browns at least had a playoff trip in recent years. Detroit hadn’t been to the playoffs since 2016 and hasn’t won a playoff game since 1991.
Much has been made about the impact Dan Campbell had when the Lions hired him in 2021. But the hiring of Brad Holmes from the Rams front office as general manager was even more significant.
The Rams have been as good as anyone at getting draft contributors in recent years, and that has translated to Detroit. Fourth-round pick Amon-Ra St. Brown has become one of the game’s best young receivers.
2022 third-round pick Kerby Joseph already has eight interceptions, and Holmes’ 2023 class looks great with how well Jahmyr Gibbs, Sam LaPorta and Brian Branch have played.
Even the front office Holmes left behind in L.A. has been able to retool on the fly in recent years, including fifth-round picks Kyren Williams in 2022 and Puka Nacua in 2023.
If a team is looking to rebuild, they should be looking at the Rams as the model and the place to find executives. Detroit is Example A as Holmes has helped turn the Lions into a winner in only three years.
4. The Buccaneers losing the NFC South would be the most shocking result in the final two weeks
The drama of the race for the NFC South could end on New Year’s Eve when the Buccaneers host the Saints. Tampa Bay holds a one-game lead on the Saints and Falcons for first place following its 30-12 rout of Jacksonville on Sunday.
The Buccaneers now need only one win or a Saints loss in Week 18 if New Orleans wins in Week 17 to clinch the NFC South.
At this point, it might be one of the biggest shockers in recent years if the Buccaneers don’t win the division this year. It helps the Buccaneers that they travel to Carolina in Week 18.
The New York Times playoff simulator has the Buccaneers with an 84% chance to win the division. Tampa Bay is also on great form with a four-game winning streak.
By blowing out another division leader in the Jaguars, the Buccaneers showed that they are worthy of a playoff spot. So it would be the most shocking thing of the season if they don’t take care of business and win the NFC South.
5. The Jets are making a mistake if they keep Robert Saleh and Joe Douglas
The Jets are yet again on the outside looking in of the playoff picture as they head into Week 17 with a 6-9 record. But despite that, Jets owner Woody Johnson told Brian Costello of the New York Post that head coach Robert Saleh and general manager Joe Douglas are safe.
It may sound like a mistake because of how the Jets mismanaged how they were handling the quarterback position after Aaron Rodgers’ ruptured Achilles on the fourth offensive snap of the season.
However, I think it’s the smart move for the Jets.
People can point to the Browns’ success as a reason why Douglas and Saleh should go. But there’s no one who could have predicted how Joe Flacco would have played coming to Cleveland. And based on how well Flacco and Kevin Stefanski mesh, there’s reason to think that it couldn’t have happened elsewhere.
Flacco also wasn’t good with the Jets, starting in nine of 12 games over three seasons and completing 57.7% of his passes for 2,253 yards, 14 TDs and six interceptions.
Far more often than not, when a quarterback goes down, the season is over. The Browns have been the exception, not the norm.
As critical as I’ve been about Douglas passing on Justin Fields for Zach Wilson, he also deserves credit for building that defense the Jets have. His 2022 draft is sensational as he brought in Sauce Gardner, Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall. Jermaine Johnson II, their third first-round pick of that draft, has come along well in his second season with 6.5 sacks and 10 tackles for loss.
With another high first-round pick, the Jets can take another swing at a quarterback either in the first or the second round.
Saleh and Johnson are clearly on the hot seat, and they should be. But it’s hard to place all the blame on them, and that’s why they deserve one last shot to get it right.
6. The Chiefs passing game is fundamentally broken
The Christmas Day tripleheader starter with a shocker in Kansas City as the Chiefs lost at home to the Raiders, 20-14. The Raiders scored defensive touchdowns on back-to-back plays, including a Jack Jones pick-six off of Patrick Mahomes.
Once again, the Chiefs offense was its own worst enemy. They turned it over twice, and Mahomes had 5.3 yards per passing attempt (27 of 44 for 235 yards). Drops and miscues have been the story of their season and it showed up again on Monday.
It can’t be denied any longer that the Chiefs passing game is broken. Their receivers came into the day with 25 drops. Immediately after CBS showed a graphic about it, Travis Kelce dropped a pass in a play that felt symbolic of their year.
Other than Kelce, the only other Chief with more than 400 yards receiving is rookie Rashee Rice (754).
A year after having just one game of fewer than 200 yards passing in the regular season, the Chiefs have four this year.
It’s been a very uncharacteristic season for Mahomes and the Chiefs.
Maybe they miss Eric Bieniemy, who is now the offensive coordinator in Washington. Maybe last season’s production was an aberration.
But something is clearly broken and this late in the season, there’s no time to fix it.
The Chiefs have let Mahomes down all season. Doubt him at your own risk, but his supporting cast has done little to help him all year.
