Games are still producing an average total goal figure we’ve never seen before – it’s now at 3.23 goals per game.
I’d expect this game to threaten that line – as do the markets with just 8/11 with Sky Bet on offer for both teams to score and over 2.5 goals to land, something which has happened in 52.3 per cent of Premier League games this season. It also would have copped in 11 of Brentford’s last 13 Premier League home matches, whilst the Bees have failed to score in just one of their last 26 league home games.
They have however conceded two or more goals in eight of their last 10 Premier League games and it was clear to see at West Ham that Ethan Pinnock’s aerial defensive dominance was missed. Ben Mee being out for the season is further damaging news. Chelsea can get in on the act in a goal-heavy game where a high scoring draw is certainly a runner with 2-2 (10/1) and 3-3 (28/1) punts worth consideration.
I think this game sets up really nicely for Everton when assessing the key strengths and weaknesses of each team, so I wouldn’t put anyone off the Evens with Sky Bet on a home win. Simply put, Everton are one of the best teams in the Premier League at creating chances from aerial balls into the box and surprisingly for a David Moyes team West Ham are one of the weakest at defending such scenarios.
West Ham have conceded the second most headed shots this season (71) and have conceded the most open play crosses (94) – 11 more than any other team. They are now facing the team with the second-most headed shots and second-most successful crosses in the Premier League. It’s the Sean Dyche way.
West Ham have conceded the second most headed shots this season (71) and have conceded the most open play crosses (94) – 11 more than any other team. They are now facing the team with the second-most headed shots and second-most successful crosses in the Premier League. It’s the Sean Dyche way.
I’m worried for Brighton in this one.
The last eight Premier League games Brighton have played after a cup fixture this season, they’ve failed to win any of them as their squad has struggled to cope with the demands of playing Roberto De Zerbi’s high-octane football more than once a week. Plus, it’s a squad that has been decimated by injuries – the latest being Kaoru Mitoma, who is borderline irreplaceable on his best form.
Marco Silva is one of the shrewdest around for stopping an opposition – as seen when bamboozling Erik ten Hag for the first 30 minutes at Old Trafford last weekend in a fantastic team performance.
And it looks like Silva has found his new Aleksandar Mitrovic based on the last few performances of Rodrigo Muniz, who has been really impressive leading the line. He’s scored four in his last four and his non-penalty expected goals return per game of 0.55 is up there with the likes of Dominic Solanke and Darwin Nunez, albeit over a smaller sample size. The early signs are hugely positive for him becoming an elite Premier League striker in time.
Wolves are smart and streetwise enough on the road to extend Newcastle’s home run without a win to five games. Considering they’ve won at both Tottenham and Chelsea recently, the 10/11 with Sky Bet on Wolves avoiding defeat does look on the generous side.
Down the flanks on the counter is where the visitors are likely to cause damage. Pedro Neto and Nelson Semedo are dangerous customers but also a pair that draw a high volume of fouls down that right flank, meaning the opposition left back is always worth a look in the fouls committed market. Tino Livramento started there against Arsenal, finally ousting Dan Burn after some poor recent showings
If he gets the nod again then the Evens with Sky Bet on him committing at least one foul looks overpriced. Neto and Semedo have been responsible for winning 18 fouls in their last seven starts playing together, with the opposition full-back making at least one foul in six of those seven and the overall foul count standing at nine fouls made by that particular player.
There’s been talk of the midfield revamp being the key to Liverpool’s improvement this season but I think it’s all about Van Dijk being back to his imperious best. He can take on any striker for pace or power one-on-one – and win that battle. As seen through the fact he’s only been dribbled past once in 24 Premier League games this season, the best record of any outfield player in the league.
Since the start of the 18/19 season, Liverpool’s win percentage with him starting is 73 per cent and just 51 per cent without him. That’s from a sample size of 216 games. And they’ve lost just one game in the Premier League at Anfield from 86 matches with him in the starting XI. Silly numbers.
And punters have started to realise he’s a real runner for this year’s PFA Player of the Year – an award he won in 2019.
If Liverpool are to win the league, which currently stands at about 30 per cent probability, then Van Dijk at this stage is their standout player as the forward line are sharing the goals out this season. The 50/1 on his chances of landing the award are long gone but Sky Bet are still 12/1 in the market. I’d argue if you fancy Liverpool to win the Premier League at 23/10, then you should back Van Dijk at 12/1 too. He can keep another clean sheet this weekend in what should be a comfortable afternoon for the title chasers.
Goals look the obvious angle of attack based on Tottenham’s games averaging a cool 3.60 goals per game this season – only Newcastle’s games have seen more. Both teams have scored in 15 of their last 16 Premier League games with the only clean sheet coming in Spurs’ 2-0 win at Nottingham Forest. That makes the 10/11 with Sky Bet on both teams scoring and the game producing over 2.5 goals look a cracking angle to exploit – it has landed in 94 per cent of their last 16 games
Crystal Palace can be relied upon in the scoring department. I suspect we’re seeing a new manager bounce with Oliver Glasner in charge with fresh ideas and philosophises likely to inspire after almost a year of Roy Hodgson’s monotonous style. Having Eberechi Eze available, back from a hamstring injury, is another huge boost when you consider Palace’s win percentage rockets from 9.5 per cent to 37 per cent with him in the starting XI. His influence can help Palace get on the scoresheet
